Furniture in H1 2026: The World and Türkiye

The first six months of 2026 were neither a clear furniture boom nor a synchronized global contraction. World merchandise trade continued to expand, but energy costs, interest rates, housing activity and consumer confidence produced sharply different outcomes across markets. Furniture retail declined in China, broad non-food retail advanced modestly in the European Union, and furnishings contributed to US consumption growth in the second quarter. Türkiye’s total exports rose, yet the broad export group that includes furniture ended the half slightly lower before a strong rebound in June. This report does not force incomparable data into a single market-size claim. It reads official trade, demand and sector indicators within their proper boundaries. The conclusion is a selective market in which price still matters, but reliable delivery, financing, product data, compliance and after-sales capability increasingly determine who wins.

Executive summary

The most defensible conclusions for the first half of 2026 are:

• Global merchandise trade opened the year with resilience. The World Trade Organization calculated that merchandise trade volume grew 4.6% in 2025 and, in its March 2026 baseline, forecast 1.9% growth for 2026. The first-quarter release later showed a 3.2% year-on-year increase. Trade was moving, but the full-year outlook remained unusually sensitive to energy and policy shocks.
• Furniture demand diverged by region. Retail sales of furniture by enterprises above China’s reporting threshold fell 3.7% in the first half. EU non-food retail volume was 2.3% higher year on year in June. In the United States, furnishings and durable household equipment contributed to the second-quarter increase in consumer spending.
• Türkiye’s total exports grew, but imports grew faster. Under the general trade system, exports increased 3.5% to $135.98 billion in the first half, while imports rose 4.6% to $189.12 billion. The trade deficit widened by 7.4%.
• TİM’s “Furniture, Paper and Forest Products” category is not furniture alone. This broad group’s first-half exports declined 1.8% to $3.746 billion, while June exports jumped 18.2% to $694.4 million.
• The latest complete, two-way product-level comparison for furniture is UN Comtrade’s 2025 data. Combining HS 9401 and HS 9403, Türkiye exported approximately $4.096 billion and imported $946 million, generating a trade surplus of about $3.150 billion. Export value was approximately 433% of import value within this scope.
• Competition in 2026 is not only about the factory price. Energy and freight volatility, working capital, lead time, product compliance, traceable materials and service quality now interact in every serious buying decision.

Each figure answers a different question. World trade data is not furniture-specific. Chinese furniture retail reflects domestic demand. TİM combines furniture with paper and forest products. HS 9401 and 9403 are customs categories for selected furniture and parts. Good analysis keeps these boundaries visible rather than blending them into a more dramatic but less reliable number.

H1 2026: one market, divergent signals

The indicators measure different scopes. Use them together for direction, not as one growth rate.

WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE

+3.2%Q1 2026, year-on-year volume change

CHINA FURNITURE RETAIL

-3.7%H1 2026, enterprises above reporting threshold

EU NON-FOOD RETAIL

+2.3%June 2026, year-on-year volume change

TR: FURNITURE, PAPER, FOREST

-1.8%H1 2026 export value, broad TİM group

Sources: WTO, China NBS, Eurostat, TİM. Scopes are not directly comparable. Data cutoff: 24 Aug 2026.KAVELA RESEARCH

Start with the measurement problem

There is no single, timely and publicly accessible official series that answers, “By what percentage did the global furniture market grow in the first half of 2026?” Furniture production, retail sales, cross-border trade and corporate revenue measure different activities. Product classifications and publication calendars also differ across countries. Private market-research firms publish global estimates, but their model inputs, product coverage or revision methods are often not fully public.

This report therefore works through four layers:

1. The macro environment: WTO, World Bank and IMF trade and growth assessments.
2. Demand signals: official retail or consumer-spending indicators from China, the EU and the US.
3. Türkiye’s total trade: national statistics from TÜİK and the Ministry of Trade.
4. Sector trade: TİM’s broad export group and UN Comtrade records for HS 9401 and HS 9403.

This framework cannot manufacture a perfect global furniture-market total. It does provide the three things a decision-maker actually needs: the direction of the order environment, Türkiye’s structural position in furniture trade and a clear map of which indicators can and cannot be compared.

Scope note: what do the HS codes include?

The furniture-specific calculation in this report uses two core customs headings:

• HS 9401: Seats and their parts.
• HS 9403: Other furniture and its parts.

The selection captures a large part of the industry, but not the whole home and contract interior economy. Medical and surgical furniture is classified under HS 9402. Mattress supports and bedding are in HS 9404. Lighting and prefabricated buildings sit elsewhere in Chapter 94. The $4.096 billion export figure for 2025 therefore describes two defined furniture headings, not every product that might be sold by a furniture or interiors business.

The global economy: resilient, but not accelerating in unison

The WTO’s March 2026 Global Trade Outlook estimated that world merchandise trade volume expanded 4.6% in 2025. Its baseline forecast for 2026 was 1.9%. In a scenario where elevated energy prices persisted, growth could be 0.5 percentage point lower, or roughly 1.4%. That range matters directly to furniture. Panels, metals, glass, foam, textiles, adhesives, electricity, kiln drying and international transport all have direct or indirect exposure to energy costs.

The first observed quarter was stronger than the cautious full-year baseline. According to the WTO’s 31 July 2026 update, world merchandise trade volume increased 3.2% year on year in the first quarter. This does not mean every industry expanded at the same rate. The same update said trade in AI-enabling goods grew approximately 40% in value. Technology investment, rather than furniture demand, may therefore have supplied a disproportionate share of the global trade impulse.

Growth forecasts also form a range, not a single fact. The World Bank’s June 2026 Global Economic Prospects release projected global growth of 2.5% and goods-and-services trade growth of 2.9% in 2026. The IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projected 3.0% global growth. The gap does not necessarily make one institution wrong. Release dates, country weights, energy assumptions and policy assumptions differ. A furniture company should not select the most convenient number; it should plan against a range and make the triggers for each scenario explicit.

Why furniture amplifies the macro cycle

For many households, furniture is a durable purchase that can be postponed. Five channels tend to expand or restrict demand:

• Home sales, household formation, moving and renovation.
• Mortgage and consumer-credit costs.
• Real wages and consumer confidence.
• Office, hospitality, education, health and public investment.
• Import prices, exchange rates, freight and delivery times.

Furniture retail can decline while GDP expands. Residential demand can slow while hotel or project furniture remains strong. Home furniture, office furniture and contract projects do not share one cycle. The first half of 2026 illustrates this segmentation particularly well.

Signals from three major demand regions

China: furniture retail lagged broader online consumption

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics first-half release, furniture retail sales by enterprises above the designated threshold totaled CNY 87 billion and declined 3.7% year on year. The year-on-year drop reached 6.6% in June. Over the same first half, online retail sales of physical goods grew 4.8%.

The two figures need to be read together. A growing online channel does not guarantee growth in furniture. The proposition “e-commerce is expanding, therefore furniture must be expanding” is false. Housing-sector stress, household confidence and caution around high-ticket durables continued to weigh on Chinese furniture demand. For exporters, this can create two secondary effects: more aggressive overseas pricing from Chinese manufacturers and tighter inventory decisions by premium brands exposed to Chinese consumers.

European Union: a modestly positive broad non-food signal

According to Eurostat’s June 2026 retail indicator, total EU retail trade volume was 1.2% higher year on year, while non-food volume was 2.3% higher. On a monthly basis, total retail declined 0.1% and non-food declined 0.3%. Because furniture is not isolated in this release, the numbers must not be reported as furniture growth. They do show that the European consumer environment was not in a broad retail collapse.

Furniture orders in Europe respond to more than household retail. Renovation, commercial real estate use, hospitality investment, public tenders and environmental compliance matter. For Turkish suppliers, a lower ex-works price alone is becoming less decisive. Short lead times, flexible batch sizes, complete technical files, fire and performance documentation, spare-parts access and readiness for the EU’s changing deforestation rules can all create value.

United States: furnishings supported second-quarter spending

In its advance estimate for the second quarter of 2026, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis identified furnishings and durable household equipment among the goods that contributed to higher consumer spending. The Census series presented by FRED recorded seasonally adjusted sales at furniture and home-furnishings stores of $11.315 billion in June, compared with $11.327 billion in May and $11.152 billion in April.

These values are not the whole US furniture market. Marketplaces, general merchandise retailers, brand websites and contract channels may sit outside the store classification. Still, they provide a useful signal that the second quarter did not contain a sudden collapse in this specialized retail channel.

One world, three furniture cycles

Negative Chinese furniture retail, modestly positive EU non-food retail and a constructive US second-quarter furnishings signal coexisted. Labeling the global furniture market simply “good” or “bad” therefore loses the information that matters. In H1 2026, geographic mix, product category and channel diversity were central to resilience.

Türkiye’s first-half trade scorecard

Under the general trade system, TÜİK’s June 2026 foreign-trade statistics reported the following for January through June:

Manufacturing represented 93.8% of exports, which is why exchange rates and external demand are central to Türkiye’s industrial debate. The Ministry of Trade’s preliminary June bulletin had put first-half exports at $136.059 billion and imports at $189.153 billion. The small difference between the ministry’s preliminary release and TÜİK’s later series is consistent with timing and revision. A single analysis should identify which release it uses rather than silently mixing the two.

The national message is clear: exports rose, imports rose faster and the trade deficit widened. Furniture cannot be inferred directly from that total because the sector combines domestic value added, locally sourced materials and imported inputs in a pattern quite different from the national basket.

Furniture, paper and forest products: a soft half, a strong June

The official sector table in TİM Report 257 shows:

The first-half decline of 1.8% underperformed the 3.5% increase in Türkiye’s total exports. The June jump suggests that order or shipment momentum improved near the end of the second quarter. It takes several subsequent months to determine whether a one-month increase is a durable change or a timing effect.

There are two critical limitations. First, TİM’s group combines furniture, paper and forest products. Its components may move in different directions. Second, TİM explains on its export statistics page that publication of certain subgroup data stopped from April 2025 because of methodological inconsistencies. The $3.746 billion total must not be relabeled as furniture exports.

Is Türkiye a net furniture exporter?

Yes. The latest complete annual product data makes that position very clear. In UN Comtrade records for Türkiye’s 2025 trade with the world:

The two headings generated a trade surplus of approximately $3.150 billion in 2025. Exports were about 433% of imports. Put another way, within the selected scope, Türkiye exported roughly $4.33 for every dollar it imported. The office segment inside these headings reads more clearly country by country than an HS total allows, and office furniture trade broken down by country is compiled separately for exactly that purpose.

Türkiye is a strong net furniture exporter

HS 9401 and HS 9403, full-year 2025 trade value, USD billions

ExportsImports

TRADE SURPLUS

$3.150bn

EXPORT-TO-IMPORT COVERAGE

433%

Source: UN Comtrade, Türkiye, world partner, 2025; HS 9401 + 9403. Kavela Research calculation.KAVELA RESEARCH

Three qualifications matter. First, these are full-year 2025 numbers, not furniture-specific H1 2026 imports. Second, the headings include parts. Third, current-dollar values combine changes in volume, exchange rates and product mix. They cannot identify physical growth on their own. The structural conclusion nevertheless remains robust: Türkiye is a substantial net furniture exporter.

Why this report does not publish an H1 2026 furniture-import number

At the research cutoff, UN Comtrade did not contain a finalized six-month Turkish record with the same HS scope, revision status and both trade flows needed for a like-for-like comparison. Türkiye’s total imports are known, but furniture imports cannot be derived from that national total. Filling the gap with an estimate would create false precision in an article that promises evidence and traceable sources.

The responsible publication sequence is:

• Use TÜİK for Türkiye’s total H1 2026 trade.
• Use TİM’s broad export group for the latest sector direction, with the category label intact.
• Use full-year 2025 UN Comtrade data for the furniture-specific export-import balance.
• Refresh the product table with the same query and HS headings once complete 2026 records become available.

This is less sensational than publishing an unverified estimate, and considerably more useful for professional readers.

Where does Türkiye’s competitive advantage lie?

Türkiye’s furniture-export capability is not based only on low cost. Access to Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia; mature production clusters; small- and medium-batch flexibility; and the ability to combine wood, metal, upholstery and site installation are meaningful advantages. Each requires operating discipline.

1. Geography and lead time

Long ocean supply chains create inventory cost and uncertainty. Road access to much of Europe can give Turkish suppliers an advantage in samples, replacement parts, revisions and replenishment. The customer value is not simply factory production time. It is total response time from confirmed order through delivery, snag resolution and service.

2. Product adaptation

Competing with Asian scale in standardized mass production can be difficult. Türkiye can be more differentiated in dimensions, finishes, colors, power modules, acoustic solutions, fire performance and project-specific packing. The cost is variant complexity. Without controlled bills of materials, technical drawings and revisions, flexibility turns into errors rather than margin.

3. Project and installation capability

In offices, education, hospitality, defense, health and public projects, surveying, mock-up rooms, logistics planning, installation and defect closure matter alongside the product. Export offers should define the scope, responsibility and price of these services. A “single source” proposition is credible only when delivery and close-out performance are measured.

4. Design and material engineering

Producing the same appearance with less material is not automatically good engineering. Strength, repairability, weight, pack volume and useful life need to be optimized together. Modular connections, replaceable surfaces, standardized hardware and disciplined packaging can reduce both cost and return risk.

5. Traceability and compliance

European buyers increasingly treat timber origin, chemical emissions, product safety and supply-chain records as prerequisites. Certification is not a logo placed in a sales deck. Material batches, suppliers and production records need to connect to actual customer orders. The second article in this series examines timber, processing and traceability in depth.

Türkiye’s weak points

Financing and working capital

Furniture manufacturers pay for panels, fabric, foam, metal and hardware before shipment. Export proceeds may arrive weeks or months later. Long payment terms, combined with currency movement, can turn an apparently profitable order into a cash deficit. Price lists are not sufficient controls. Quote validity, deposits, milestone payments, currency clauses and freight responsibility should be standardized.

Confusing unit value with volume

Export value can rise while physical volume falls, or the reverse. UN Comtrade also records net weight for the selected 2025 headings, but dollars per kilogram is not a standalone measure of quality because a mixed basket can move toward heavier or lighter products. Management reporting should separate dollar revenue, units, kilograms or cubic meters, order margin and product family.

Too many markets and too little focus

“We sell everywhere” is not a market strategy. Each country has different dimensions, certifications, delivery conventions, price thresholds and service expectations. Export priorities can be built around four variables: accessible demand, gross contribution, collection risk and the company’s real capacity to serve.

Product data readiness

Professional buyers need more than attractive photography. They require dimensions, weights, package counts, materials, finish codes, fire and emissions evidence, CAD or BIM files, assembly instructions and spare-part codes. Weak product information can erase the advantage created by a beautiful catalogue at the quotation stage.

Three scenarios for the second half

Scenario triggers are more useful than a single-point forecast.

Base case: slow growth and high buyer selectivity

Consistent with the WTO’s 1.9% merchandise-trade forecast and the World Bank’s 2.9% goods-and-services trade estimate, orders continue but buyers remain cautious on inventory, price and delivery risk. Türkiye’s proximity and flexibility help, while margin pressure persists.

Upside case: easier finance and stronger renovation or project demand

Sustained declines in interest and energy costs, improving consumer confidence, and stronger European or Middle Eastern project pipelines support both household and contract furniture. If the broad TİM category continues June’s improvement, it can bring the full year back into positive territory. Skilled labor and timely materials may then become the constraint rather than nameplate factory capacity.

Downside case: an energy and logistics shock hits cost and demand together

The WTO’s adverse energy scenario removes approximately half a percentage point from global merchandise-trade growth. The furniture effect extends beyond freight. Foam, adhesives, finishes, metal, glass and drying become more expensive while consumers cut postponable purchases. Variable-price clauses, approved material alternatives and dual sourcing are practical defenses.

A 12-indicator management dashboard

A furniture company can manage the second half with a compact monthly dashboard:

1. Order intake and year-on-year change.
2. Order fill and on-time-in-full delivery.
3. Gross contribution by country and channel.
4. Quote-to-order conversion.
5. Average quote validity and currency deviation.
6. Material lead time and critical stock days.
7. Export unit value by product family.
8. Damage, return and missing-part cost.
9. Receivable days and overdue collections.
10. Sample-to-production conversion.
11. Documentation and product-data completeness.
12. Service close-out time and repeat visits.

The dashboard translates national trade signals into company decisions. Macro data shows the direction of travel. Operating data shows which orders create value after cash, risk and service are included.

What buyers and investors should examine

Revenue growth alone is insufficient in 2026. Better questions include:

• Does export growth come from price, physical volume or mix?
• What share of revenue comes from the top five customers and top three countries?
• What is the cost share of imported inputs, and is there a natural currency hedge?
• How long is the order-to-cash cycle?
• What is the actual installation and snag-completion cost in projects?
• Do bill-of-material and technical-document revisions reliably reach production?
• Can wood and panel inputs be traced to batches and suppliers?
• Do service, spare-parts and warranty data influence product decisions?

These answers are more informative than the sector average. Two companies selling into the same export market can have opposite outcomes if one is exposed to currency and working-capital losses while the other manages product mix, payments and service well.

Conclusion: how did H1 2026 go?

The concise, evidence-led answer is: Global trade remained active, but furniture demand did not rise in a synchronized way. Türkiye increased total exports, while the broad export category containing furniture declined 1.8% in the first half and rebounded sharply in June. On the latest complete product-level evidence, Türkiye remains a clear net furniture exporter.

H1 2026 supports neither a simple crisis narrative nor a claim of a global furniture surge. Demand is selective, geographically fragmented and channel-specific. The winning manufacturer will not merely be the cheapest. It will deliver the right product with reliable documentation, speed, damage control, service and a predictable total cost.

Türkiye’s opportunity is real: geographic proximity, manufacturing flexibility, project capability and a strong net-export position. Its risks are equally real: financing cost, imported-input volatility, price competition and incomplete product data. Performance in the second half will depend not only on external demand, but on how effectively each business manages this combination.

Methodology and source notes

The data cutoff for this article is 24 August 2026. Monetary values are current US dollars unless otherwise stated. TİM’s broad sector category and UN Comtrade’s HS 9401 plus HS 9403 scope are not used interchangeably. Ratios are rounded calculations from source values.

Primary sources

• WTO, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026
• WTO, first-quarter 2026 world merchandise trade update
• World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2026
• IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026
• National Bureau of Statistics of China, first-half 2026 retail data
• Eurostat, June 2026 retail trade volume
• US BEA, advance estimate for Q2 2026 GDP
• FRED/Census, Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
• TÜİK, Foreign Trade Statistics, June 2026
• Türkiye Ministry of Trade, June 2026 foreign-trade data
• TİM Report 257, sector export table
• TİM, export statistics and methodology note
• UN Comtrade API documentation
• UN Comtrade, Türkiye 2025 HS 9401 and HS 9403 export query
• UN Comtrade, Türkiye 2025 HS 9401 and HS 9403 import query